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Podcast

Episode 013 | Allbirds AI, SpaceX IPO, RIP Afeela

In this episode:

Allbirds sold its name and assets for $39 million after a $4 billion IPO in 2021, and the shell listing is now being used to raise $50 million for a GPU-as-a-Service company called NewBird AI. We use it as a window into the D2C brand era and what it takes to build a consumer brand that lasts.

SpaceX filed confidentially for a June IPO targeting $50 to $75 billion at a self-assessed valuation over $1 trillion, with Starlink generating $11.4 billion of that revenue in 2025. Iran acquired a Chinese spy satellite with half-meter resolution for $36.6 million through an in-orbit delivery model designed to sidestep export restrictions. A Citrini Research analyst rode a speedboat through the Strait of Hormuz to find out whether the blockade is real.

On the automotive side: the Sony Honda AFEELA is canceled before release, Honda expects a $15 billion loss and its first unprofitable year since 1957, Slate raised $650 million for a bare-bones $25,000 EV pickup, and Stellantis is recalling 700,000 vehicles over a fire risk. We also cover lab-grown chocolate and why cocoa went from $3,000 to $12,000 a ton.

Links from the discussion:

Allbirds pivots to AI hyperscale as NewBird AI: https://www.theverge.com/news/912484/allbirds-ai-hyperscale 

SpaceX files to go public, setting stage for huge IPO: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/spacex-ipo-elon-musk.html 

New SpaceX numbers show reliance on Starlink: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/new-spacex-numbers-show-reliance-starlink 

Iran used Chinese spy satellite to target US bases: https://www.ft.com/content/1fddd2cd-1294-4e9c-a17d-5ea06b399355 

Citrini Research: Strait of Hormuz field trip: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/strait-of-hormuz-a-citrini-field 

Sony Honda Mobility cancels AFEELA 1 before release: https://www.shm-afeela.com/en/news/2026-03-25/ 

Slate Auto raises $650 million Series C: https://www.wardsauto.com/news/slate-auto-says-650m-boost-will-get-it-to-next-stages-of-production/817388/ 

A new kind of hybrid car is about to hit America's streets (EREV explainer): https://apple.news/AMS9PudLNTgedX0f8eo1MkQ 

Stellantis to recall up to 700,000 cars worldwide over fire risk: https://www.reuters.com/business/stellantis-recall-up-700000-cars-worldwide-over-fire-risk-2026-04-01/ 

Israeli startup makes world's first lab-grown chocolate bar: https://www.ft.com/content/ea3610be-2a9d-45ac-b4c9-5e18225fed6b 

Recall Radar (First Article): https://www.lumafield.com/first-article/recall-radar 

CT scan: cacao pod: https://voyager.lumafield.com/project/3af46887-0dea-447a-8629-a0d16cb4073a 

Transcript:

Full Transcript
JON BRUNER

Welcome to Go/No-Go. I'm Jon Bruner.

ALEX HAO

And I'm Alex Hao.

JON BRUNER

Go/No-Go is a podcast about design, engineering, manufacturing, and the calls that can make or break great products. Go/No-Go is brought to you by Lumafield, which makes X-ray CT scanners and AI-powered software that give engineers complete confidence in the products they ship in industries like medical devices, automotive, batteries, and more. You can learn more at lumafield.com. Today we're going to talk through some headlines that cover the world of manufacturing, engineering, and product development. Alex, have you ever owned Allbirds?

ALEX HAO

Not personally. My husband used to have a couple pairs and his dad got super into them, and I think that is probably what went wrong for Allbirds. Did you ever have a pair?

JON BRUNER

No, I've never owned Allbirds. My wife had a pair. What you're suggesting is that there was a bit of a Facebook situation — the parents adopted it and then it was no longer cool for the kids.

ALEX HAO

Yeah, exactly. Allbirds had a hit a decade ago with their wool shoes. They were ubiquitous here in San Francisco. They had a $4 billion IPO in 2021 and then a pretty dramatic fall from grace ever since. They recently sold off their name and assets for just $39 million to American Exchange.

JON BRUNER

This is a product and manufacturing story in itself. A lot of their consumers felt that as they scaled up manufacturing, they lost control of quality. Despite being very popular, these wool shoes were never produced in such high volumes that it was easy to bring on large footwear manufacturers. So they kept bouncing around different suppliers in East Asia and Southeast Asia and lost control of their quality. That, and it was a bit of a one-hit wonder as far as styling and concept.

ALEX HAO

Allbirds is a great emblem of that period in startups where you had a lot of D2C products. Away, Outside Voices, Casper Mattresses. Many of them are still around, but they received a lot of investment and didn't necessarily grow in a way that was sustainable.

JON BRUNER

It turns out you can really ignite consumer excitement around either a new way of distributing your products, as with Casper Mattress, or a new set of materials or design considerations, as with Allbirds. But once you've played that into the initial set of consumers, it's very difficult to keep those consumer brands going. You have to continually deliver new innovative products. That's expensive and risky.

ALEX HAO

The headlines around this are a little deceptive. It's not really Allbirds themselves pivoting to AI. It's almost like a SPAC situation. American Exchange has bought something that is listed publicly already and they're able to do whatever they want within that shell.

JON BRUNER

Having a listing on a public exchange is itself very valuable. It makes it easy to raise money. And right now, being an AI services company is a very hot business.

ALEX HAO

It's a shame that NewBird AI, which they're raising $50 million for, has nothing to do with birds at all.

JON BRUNER

Their original shoes didn't really have anything to do with birds either. Just made of sheep byproducts. It's going to be GPU-as-a-Service, basically. They're raising the money, they're going to buy a bunch of GPUs, and then lease out that compute space.

ALEX HAO

Right.

JON BRUNER

It was a good run, Allbirds. I associate them with a certain era in San Francisco. Now we have real interest rates again and it's hard to pull these things off. Speaking of the public markets, everyone is watching the coming SpaceX IPO.

ALEX HAO

They filed confidentially for an IPO targeting June, so it's quite soon. They're looking to raise about $50 to $75 billion at a self-assessed valuation of over a trillion.

JON BRUNER

That's enormous. The interesting thing about the listing is that SpaceX has convinced Nasdaq to shorten the waiting period to be included in the Nasdaq 100 index from 90 days to just 15 days after it lists. That means it's going to make its way into a lot of index funds that track the Nasdaq 100, which is how a lot of Americans invest their money.

ALEX HAO

A lot of people associate SpaceX with the big flashy rocket launches, but the primary financial driver for their business is Starlink. That generated $11.4 billion just in 2025.

JON BRUNER

The thing I always find interesting about SpaceX is that it also owns Twitter through a series of M&A transactions. Elon Musk bought Twitter in 2022, rebranded it X in 2023. He also started a standalone AI research company called xAI to do frontier model development, which created the Grok chatbot. In 2025, Musk folded X into xAI in an all-stock deal that valued X at about $33 billion and xAI at $80 billion. Then in February of this year, SpaceX acquired xAI in an all-stock transaction. The result is that SpaceX owns X, formerly known as Twitter. As Matt Levine pointed out in Bloomberg, usually billionaires use their cash flow from their lucrative web software businesses to fund their hobby of blasting rockets into space. But in this case, Elon Musk is actually using his lucrative space company to fund his hobby of owning a social media network.

ALEX HAO

It's fun to think about the surviving employees of Twitter who now are going to have SpaceX stock at the end of all of it.

JON BRUNER

It's actually a pretty good deal for Twitter employees. And I believe the lenders who underwrote Musk's acquisition of Twitter have done pretty well themselves.

ALEX HAO

One of the reasons they say they're raising money is to fund orbital data centers, putting all of that technology into space.

JON BRUNER

That's an intriguing direction in an era when a lot of companies need data centers and municipalities are pushing back on them getting built. There are no NIMBYs in space.

ALEX HAO

It's also pretty cold up there, so you don't need much cooling either.

JON BRUNER

Very efficient once you get everything out into space. Speaking of space, we have a headline about Iran using Chinese spy satellites.

ALEX HAO

There's an article from the Financial Times about how the satellite TEE-01B was acquired by Iran in late 2024 from a Chinese company. It's a fascinating business model. This company called Earth Eye Co. is Chinese. They offer in-orbit delivery: they build the satellite, launch it into space, and then for $36.6 million you can, as Iran, buy that satellite. The advantages are significant. You don't have to do the development or worry about getting the parts and all the scrutiny that comes with that, because the satellite is already out there. Additionally, the software and ground network are delivered via Emposat, which is another Chinese entity. So even though the US is targeting Iran, those ground stations are in China, and they're presumably not going to attack China anytime soon. That protects the satellite's ability to continue operating.

JON BRUNER

Spy satellites have always been domestically developed. They're an apex technology created by any nation's advanced aerospace and defense industry and have always been very closely guarded. Countries are reluctant to export satellites except to their allies. In this case, Earth Eye Co. is set up to supply spy satellite capacity to the kinds of governments that are not usually able to get access to leading-edge spy satellite technology from countries like the US.

ALEX HAO

Their marketing material says it's all civilian space stuff. You can use it to monitor the ocean and the atmosphere. Not necessarily US military bases in the Middle East.

JON BRUNER

And they have this interesting transactional method where they launch the satellite first and then sell it to another country. Apparently this gets them around export restrictions related to selling satellites and other aerospace technologies directly to other countries.

ALEX HAO

It's a huge advancement for Iran. This satellite has about half a meter resolution. Their previous most advanced satellite had a resolution of about 5 meters. A real capability upgrade.

JON BRUNER

Satellites can't always tell quite the same story as sending an analyst out to a war zone and seeing what's going on.

ALEX HAO

There's a firm, Citrini Research, best known for shorting Silicon Valley Bank before it imploded in 2023. They've had some other pretty significant market impacts.

JON BRUNER

A few weeks ago they caused a lot of SaaS companies to crash because they wrote a very convincing article about how in the era of vibe coding, no one will buy enterprise ERP software anymore.

ALEX HAO

They're pretty effective at getting their message out. They put up a social post saying if they got enough likes, they'd send an analyst to the Strait of Hormuz. And they did. Their thesis was that everyone is operating on the same information, the official shipping and satellite data. What's the situation really like? So they sent one of their employees, named Analyst Number Three in the report for anonymity, with a Pelican case of equipment, Cuban cigars, $15,000 in cash, and a supply of Zyns.

JON BRUNER

Which of those were bribes and which were for the analyst?

ALEX HAO

I think all pretty flexible out there. He flew to Dubai, crossed into Oman, got a ride from Iranian smugglers on a speedboat, and interviewed fishermen in small villages nearby. They indicated a higher volume of vessels crossing than the official data suggested. He was basically able to show that rather than a true blockade, Iran had set up something more like a toll road. He counted about 15 ships on April 2, down from over 100 prior to the war, but he saw enough of a system to indicate traffic would continue to increase.

JON BRUNER

So he was seeing the Iranian military not truly blocking the strait, but allowing certain favored vessels through.

ALEX HAO

As long as they paid. He was seeing ships go through that weren't appearing in the satellite data.

JON BRUNER

So much digital data is available to analysts now that everyone winds up working off the same information. That's what always happens when data becomes widely accessible: the incremental value condenses back down toward zero if everyone is looking at the same thing. Even in an era of microsatellite-guided financial and geopolitical analysis, there's still no replacement for sending an analyst into the desert with a pack of Zyns.

ALEX HAO

Nothing like first-person research. There's a terrifying but also hilarious video he took from the speedboat, bobbing up and down with a fishing vessel on fire in the background.

JON BRUNER

That is commitment to the job. Let's pivot and talk about some headlines from the automotive industry. It's undergoing a lot of changes related to US policy in the EV market and very competitive automotive companies coming out of China.

ALEX HAO

Jon, I'm curious, have you ever seen the AFEELA?

JON BRUNER

I have seen it four years in a row at CES as it made its very gradual emergence. How about you?

ALEX HAO

I really thought they were going to make it to reality. They had it at the shopping mall down in San Jose.

JON BRUNER

Were they taking orders?

ALEX HAO

When I saw it there weren't people there, but it was on display in the middle of the mall for whatever reason, trying to make it seem concrete.

JON BRUNER

It's always been positioned at CES as being just around the corner. It never quite got to the point of taking orders.

ALEX HAO

After many years of development, it's officially been canceled before release.

JON BRUNER

This was a Sony Honda joint venture founded in 2022 and announced at CES in 2023, then with a prominent keynote position at CES for the four years that followed, including just a few months ago when you and I were both there. The idea was that Honda needed to get into next-generation EVs. It had a weak EV pipeline and its software division was seen as a lagging capability. Meanwhile, Sony had toyed with getting into the automotive market, as Apple has as well, but never wanted to go into full production on a car. So they formed this joint venture. Honda would develop a line of EVs, handle the car architecture, handle manufacturing at its plant in Ohio. Sony would take care of the software, the infotainment, the in-cabin experience, and anticipate a future where cars are self-driving and the entertainment capabilities become even more important.

ALEX HAO

Sony's semiconductor solutions business has a large automotive team where they make a lot of the sensors used in LiDAR and other ADAS systems.

JON BRUNER

It seemed like a natural fit. But there were aspects of this product introduction that always struck me as odd. Their introductory model was a full-size luxury sedan, which as we discussed in Episode 4 of Go/No-Go, is a car format that's really on the way out, especially in the US. Tesla just discontinued the Model S in part for this reason.

ALEX HAO

You also look at the name. AFEELA.

JON BRUNER

Maybe not a branding victory. This car was priced at the very high end of the market, starting at $90,000, with another trim at $102,000. Pretty expensive. 300-mile range, which is not best-in-class anymore. And it was introduced with Level 2 autonomous driving, roughly what Tesla Autopilot is. They promised to get to L3 sometime in the future, where you can take your eyes off the road for short periods on specific freeway sections. But there wasn't really a plan to get to L4, which is where Waymo operates.

ALEX HAO

The official angle on the cancellation is that Honda was unable to deliver the EV technology it had promised to contribute. But there seem to be a lot of factors that led both parties to realize it wasn't a great decision to continue investing.

JON BRUNER

Honda is having a rough time in the EV era. This is shaping up to be Honda's first unprofitable year since it went public in 1957. It's always been a very well-run company, a distant number two to Toyota in volume among Japanese automakers, but very well regarded. This EV program is a significant stumble. They expect it to amount to a loss of about $15 billion.

ALEX HAO

It's surprising to see a Japanese automaker struggling with the EV market, given that Japan is such a leader in battery technology.

JON BRUNER

Toyota in particular went aggressively on hydrogen fuel cell technology for cars that never took off. They didn't anticipate the rate at which battery prices would fall. Honda was pretty late to the EV game, and it came at just the wrong time geopolitically. The US market for EVs has really contracted. Federal policies are disfavoring EVs. Bloomberg estimated in 2024 that half of cars sold in America by 2030 would be electric. Now their estimate is 27%. Meanwhile, globally, the new generation of Chinese automakers is extremely competitive. They aren't really available in the US, but in the rest of Honda's markets they are formidable.

ALEX HAO

The AFEELA was a stodgy, expensive sedan. On the other end of the spectrum we have the Slate truck, which really seems to appeal to what people want more these days.

JON BRUNER

A fascinating direction for a pickup truck in the US, where trucks have been getting bigger and more expensive.

ALEX HAO

Slate went viral some months ago. They're creating a bare-bones, low-cost EV pickup truck and just raised a $650 million Series C to move toward production.

JON BRUNER

This brings their total raised to $1.4 billion. Slate is backed by Jeff Bezos through his personal wealth. Interestingly, Rivian is also backed by Jeff Bezos, but through Amazon's equity stake. Slate says they've taken over 160,000 reservations since going to market last year. These are refundable $50 reservations, so it's not a huge amount of skin in the game. They expect to start in the mid-$20,000 range. They haven't announced exact pricing yet but say they're going to start delivering later this year.

ALEX HAO

They have a really interesting approach. Today you go to a dealer and cars have so many sensors, so many features, different trim levels. Slate is doing a single build configuration: no infotainment system, crank windows, one color body. Everything else is an add-on.

JON BRUNER

The body is literally slate gray and you put a wrap on it instead of having it painted. Hence the name. You can even turn it into a five-seat SUV with a post-sale add-on rather than ordering it in that configuration.

ALEX HAO

It'll be interesting to see if Slate dictates the trend. On the other end we see larger automakers moving into a new type of vehicle, the EREV, extended range electric vehicle.

JON BRUNER

What is an EREV?

ALEX HAO

It's an EV that also has gas, but the gas never pushes the wheels. It has a gas engine that recharges the battery. In the upcoming Ram 1500 REV, set to debut later this year, it can run 150 miles just on battery. With the additional gas charging, you can get up to 700 miles. The point is to address range anxiety.

JON BRUNER

It's an interesting approach. It adds cost and weight, as well as an additional layer of maintenance because you have to maintain an internal combustion engine alongside the electric drivetrain. But it addresses something real about how car sales and marketing hinge on long-tail usage. Car consumers always think about the most extreme conditions under which they might use a car. People say they want AWD because they go skiing, but that might be twice a year. In the case of range anxiety, the median American only drives 25 miles per day. Even the 90th percentile American drives 80 miles per day, well within the range of any modern EV. People who worry about needing more range are thinking about rare circumstances, a road trip once a year where they don't want to stop and recharge as often.

ALEX HAO

Recent studies show consumers are actually less concerned about range anxiety than they were in the past. Car development cycles are so long, you have to wonder if this is the product of market research from five years ago that's no longer relevant.

JON BRUNER

It takes ages to develop these cars, and that happens slower than batteries improve. Turning back to automotive recalls: in our last episode we talked about the Takata airbag recall. Lots of recalls going on this year. You've highlighted one from Stellantis.

ALEX HAO

Stellantis is recalling about 700,000 vehicles produced between mid-2023 and early 2026 due to a fire risk. A possible defect can allow water to enter the engine, which can potentially lead to a fire. It covers most of their brands, including several European ones. It made me wonder why we can't buy French cars like Renault or Peugeot here in the US.

JON BRUNER

It's an interesting recall because it affects cars made under the Peugeot, Citroen, Fiat, and Jeep marques. That got us thinking about the real commonalities between these cars. They're all owned by Stellantis, and since Fiat took a controlling stake in Chrysler in 2009 and PSA and Fiat Chrysler merged in 2019, there's been quite a bit of engineering commonality across those brands.

ALEX HAO

After that initial merger we started to see some Fiat cars in the US. The Fiat 500. But you don't really see any of the French brands.

JON BRUNER

Stellantis has never brought those brands to the US since the mergers. Some were marketed here in the 1980s and 1990s. Renault, Peugeot, and Citroen were at various points available in the US, but they were unsuccessful because they competed directly against Japanese brands that were more reliable, had better fuel economy, and were better regarded in the marketplace.

ALEX HAO

Part of why they haven't been reintroduced is that they would just compete with other Stellantis brands. It'd be kind of a net-zero game for a lot of effort.

JON BRUNER

Plus the US automotive market has really diverged from the rest of the world. Cars keep getting bigger, fuel economy is not a priority. The range of models available in France is quite different from what the American consumer wants.

ALEX HAO

You don't see a lot of pickup trucks in France either.

JON BRUNER

I just wish we had the Citroen hydropneumatic suspension that I was fascinated by as a kid.

ALEX HAO

What is that?

JON BRUNER

Citroen used to have this active hydraulic suspension system. I remember as a kid seeing these cars that would be switched off in a parking lot and kind of sink down onto their tires. I thought it was so cool that a car stands up when you turn it on and sits down when you turn it off.

ALEX HAO

It's like a bus.

JON BRUNER

Yeah, like a kneeling bus. Probably not the comparison any automaker wants. But some luxury cars have this now.

ALEX HAO

The Mercedes GLE is able to rise and lift as well. It has e-Active Body Control so it can get out of sand. Because you're always taking your Mercedes into the sand dunes.

JON BRUNER

Long-tail automotive needs. When the Hummer was introduced to the consumer market around 1992, it had a feature where you could electronically change the tire pressure: reduce it to drive across sand, then increase it for highway driving to improve mileage. A feature that has almost certainly never been used in real life.

ALEX HAO

But that sounds pretty sick.

JON BRUNER

I think about it all the time when I'm driving and wondering how full the tires are. I wish I could just add more air with a push of a button.

ALEX HAO

The last story I have comes from Susannah Savage of the Financial Times. There's an Israeli startup called Celleste Bio that has made the world's first lab-grown chocolate bar.

JON BRUNER

I've heard of lab-grown meat. What is a lab-grown chocolate bar?

ALEX HAO

They take a few cells from cocoa beans and grow them in large tanks, feeding them sugar and nutrients, basically simulating the cocoa pod in a vat. The product produces the same fats and flavor compounds and is virtually indistinguishable from natural cocoa butter.

JON BRUNER

Lab-grown meat is interesting because you can eat it as a vegetarian or vegan without the animal rights implications, and beef ranching in particular is hard on the environment. What is lab-grown chocolate trying to accomplish?

ALEX HAO

It's mostly a financial incentive. The chocolate industry has been dealing with surging cocoa prices. There are plantations in West Africa where natural issues and lack of investment have driven prices up dramatically. Cocoa surged from about $3,000 a ton in 2024 to a peak of $12,000 a ton. It's since come down because demand is down, partly because of the Ozempic era, people eating a little less chocolate, and yields have improved. But manufacturers are still incentivized to find ways to bring that price down and make it more stable rather than being at the whims of the weather.

JON BRUNER

That resembles the justification for lab-grown egg substitutes. Eggs are intermediate ingredients in all sorts of processed food, and when something like an avian flu epidemic hits, the price really skyrockets. That's disruptive to consumers buying eggs at the grocery store, but even more disruptive to big food processors using eggs as binders or other ingredients in processed food.

ALEX HAO

These big corporations have been testing alternatives, especially in seasonal candies. But consumers can taste the difference and they hate it. So this would be a best-case scenario. The founder also says this will be good for the environment because you can produce the cocoa butter right next to the chocolate facility, eliminating the shipping and all of the land devoted to agriculture.

JON BRUNER

So this is cell-cultured cocoa butter, actually produced in a bioreactor.

ALEX HAO

Yes.

JON BRUNER

I can't wait to try it. We'll wrap up. If you'd like to reach us at Go/No-Go, send us an email at gng@lumafield.com. Be sure to check out the show notes that accompany this episode in your podcast app. We're going to share links to everything we've talked about, as well as any relevant CT scans for you to explore. We have CT scanned a cacao pod. It looks about like what you'd expect inside, but it's fun because it's a CT scan. For Go/No-Go, I'm Jon Bruner.

ALEX HAO

And I'm Alex Hao.

JON BRUNER

Go/No-Go is brought to you by Lumafield, which was founded to upgrade manufacturing. You can learn more at lumafield.com. Go/No-Go is produced by Austin Carder and edited by Brian Tran with additional assistance from Eric Petralia.

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